Comparing golf statistics with other sports...
- Perry Noun
- Jan 21
- 3 min read
Lou Riccio, Golf Statistics, and What the Numbers Really Say
Lou Riccio started playing golf at the age of 12 in Fairfield County, Connecticut. Unfortunately, he put his clubs away until he graduated with a degree in engineering when he became addicted to the game of golf and walked away from, “all other aspects of his life”.
In the late 70’s, he helped form a small golf league and became the handicap chairman. When he realized his handicap was lower in the league than on the more difficult courses he played on weekends, he decided to write a letter to the USGA essentially telling them their “course rating system needed to be changed”.
His letter earned him an invitation to join their Handicap Research Team which was mostly made up of other engineers reviewing the entire handicap system. The proposal that was finalized two years later became the current Slope System used by the USGA.
Riccio’s Rules and Greens in Regulation
Lou’s fascination with statistics resulted in his development of “Riccio’s Rules” which predicts golfers scores based on his formula...
“95 minus two times the number of greens hit in regulation”
and,
“Three greens break 90...eight greens break 80 and...13 greens break 70”.
His data challenged what most golfers have believed for years...putting is the most important factor in scoring.
He claims, “I proved it’s greens in regulation”.
Golf’s Pace of Play Bible
Fast forward...2014...Lou Rocio, PHD writes a book called “Golf ’s Pace of Play Bible”.
In it he identifies his three main reasons for slow play:
Individual Behaviors; move to your own ball, move quickly.
Management issues; which is mostly tee intervals.
Course set-up; how wide are the fairways, how thick is the rough and the most important of all...speed of the greens.
What Are the Odds
Last month, Dr. Riccio, Golf Digest Professional Advisor, submitted data comparing golf feats “across various levels of golf and pro sports” he called, “What Are The Odds”.
I just finished reading the article. Great stuff.
Just in case you missed it, he
A “15” - handicap golfer only makes a 3 foot putt approximately 68% of the time. That’s about the same percentage Rickie Fowler hits a drive in the fairway and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tryeek Hill scores a touchdown in a regular season game.
A “5” handicap golfer makes a par approximately 45% of the time. Rory McLlroy hits a drive longer than 320 yards at about the same percentage, which is similiar to Andrei Vasilevskly, Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender gives up about 1.5 goals in a game.
An 80’s - shooter makes a par approximately 45% of the time. This is like Justin Thomas making an 8 foot putt and tennis sensation Coco Gauff making it to at least the semi-finals of a Grand Slam.
A “15” handicap golfer only hits a green in regulation only about 11% of the time. That’s like Wyndham Clark getting up and down from a greenside bunker 5 times in a row or New York Yankee outfielder Aaron Judge hitting a home run in consecutive games.
An 80 shooter making three consecutive pars happens only about 9% of the time. This is like Scottie Scheffler making two consecutive birdies during a round and PBA bowler Jason Belmonte rolling 4 strikes in a row.
A golfer who averages 85 shooting under 80 will only happen approximately 7% of the time. This is like Sahith Theegala making a 30 foot putt or Dallas Maverick guard Luka Doncic scoring 45 points or more in a game.
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